“Regime change and recovery in 1930s Britain” co-authored with George Chouliarakis (Harvard Kennedy School).
By analysing narrative evidence from British newspapers, this paper examines when British macroeconomic policy became credible during the recovery of the 1930s. Examining monthly macroeconomic data, contemporary price forecasts, and policy changes at a daily frequency we show that despite a speculative boom and rising prices in summer 1932, deflation then returned in Britain. In contrast, in spring 1933 inflationary news shocks in the US, new British capital to support the pound, and joint British and US rejection of a return to the gold standard contributed to expectations of rising prices and economic recovery in Britain.
“Fiscal Multipliers in Times of Crises and Prosperity – Historical Evidence from Greece” co-authored with George Chouliarakis (Harvard Kennedy School) and Sophia Lazaretou (Bank of Greece) – Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 230.
Empirical analysis of a unique and unexplored historical dataset for Greece provides new insight into the state and regime dependence of the government spending multiplier. Greece fought numerous wars between the establishment of the modern Greek state and the outbreak of World War II. Using data for both armament and disarmament, and controlling for states and regimes in the economy, our empirical findings suggest that the exchange rate regime, the presence of exchange controls, and the business cycle all have a significant impact on the size of the government spending multiplier. However, analysing the interaction of these states and regimes turns out to be crucial to removing the bias from our multiplier estimates. In particular, regardless of other states and regimes in the economy, the multiplier is estimated to be zero during good times. In contrast, it is well above unity when spending decreases in a recession.
By analysing narrative evidence from British newspapers, this paper examines when British macroeconomic policy became credible during the recovery of the 1930s. Examining monthly macroeconomic data, contemporary price forecasts, and policy changes at a daily frequency we show that despite a speculative boom and rising prices in summer 1932, deflation then returned in Britain. In contrast, in spring 1933 inflationary news shocks in the US, new British capital to support the pound, and joint British and US rejection of a return to the gold standard contributed to expectations of rising prices and economic recovery in Britain.
“Fiscal Multipliers in Times of Crises and Prosperity – Historical Evidence from Greece” co-authored with George Chouliarakis (Harvard Kennedy School) and Sophia Lazaretou (Bank of Greece) – Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 230.
Empirical analysis of a unique and unexplored historical dataset for Greece provides new insight into the state and regime dependence of the government spending multiplier. Greece fought numerous wars between the establishment of the modern Greek state and the outbreak of World War II. Using data for both armament and disarmament, and controlling for states and regimes in the economy, our empirical findings suggest that the exchange rate regime, the presence of exchange controls, and the business cycle all have a significant impact on the size of the government spending multiplier. However, analysing the interaction of these states and regimes turns out to be crucial to removing the bias from our multiplier estimates. In particular, regardless of other states and regimes in the economy, the multiplier is estimated to be zero during good times. In contrast, it is well above unity when spending decreases in a recession.